With finals on our doorstep, Justin Flynn takes a look at the situation in the Bellarine, Geelong & District and Geelong Football Leagues and what could happen in the run home.
BELLARINE
Torquay will finish top and we’ve known that for quite some time.
Then things get interesting leading into the final round of the home and away season.
Anglesea is 2nd, a game clear of Drysdale, but with a very similar percentage.
The Seas are also a game clear of Modewarre, but the Warriors have an inferior percentage.
Barwon Heads and Geelong Amateur are half a game behind with the Heads having a better percentage.
The Seagulls have the toughest task to stay in the five with a match-up against Torquay. Lose and they must hope Ammos suffer an unlikely, but far from impossible, loss to Newcomb.
Modda and Drysdale meet each other with the winner earning the double chance. The loser could still finish 6th.
Anglesea will finish 2nd if it beats Ocean Grove as expected and can’t finish lower than 3rd thanks to a good percentage.
Queenscliff will finish 7th and down the bottom, the wooden spoon is far from decided.
Portarlington (12 points, 61.93 percent), Ocean Grove (12, 61.64) and Newcomb (8, 63.54) can all finish with the unwanted ‘prize’.
GEELONG
With three games of the split-round 15 to come, the biggest match is between Leopold and South Barwon.
South Barwon is a game out of the five and with 5th placed Bell Park to face Lara, they need to win.
The Polders have top three aspirations and will be there if they win.
Bell Park has an inferior percentage and just needs to keep winning to play finals. They should do so against Lara.
St Mary’s is still gunning for the minor premiership and should account for North Shore to be a game behind St Joseph’s.
The final three rounds contain some shapeshifting fixtures.
In round 16 Bell Park plays South Barwon while Colac (3rd) plays St Mary’s.
Round 17 sees the top six sides play the current bottom six and barring any upsets, sets up a fascinating final round.
Bell Park meets St Mary’s and may need to win to play finals. Joeys play Colac in what could decide 1st and 3rd. Leopold faces a tricky one against Newtown & Chilwell. South Barwon will be tested by Geelong West.
GEELONG & DISTRICT
With two rounds left, East Geelong has all but locked away the minor premiership, two games and percentage ahead of Belmont.
Belmont and Werribee Centrals will meet in the qualifying final. Which team finishes higher is anyone’s guess. They are both on 13 wins, but the Lions hold sway with a better percentage.
Belmont has Bannockburn (5th) and North Geelong (7th) while the Centurions finish with North Geelong and Thomson (4th).
Thomson (40 points, 104.18 percent), Bannockburn (36, 106.72), Inverleigh (34, 99.12) and North Geelong (32, 100.72) are still in the mix.
One more win against either Corio (11th) or Werribee Centrals will do it for Thomson.
Bannockburn meets Belmont and North Geelong and may need to win both to play finals.
Inverleigh faces Geelong West (12th) and Anakie (10th) and if it wins both, will scrape in if Banno slips up.
North Geelong faces the toughest challenge and will start underdogs against Centrals and Belmont. If they cause two upsets, the Magpies still need results to go their way in other games.
At the foot of the table, only two points separate Corio and Geelong West from the wooden spoon.
Both teams will start underdogs in round 17, which would set up a final round clash at West Oval between the two clubs to see who avoids the dreaded wooden spoon.
