Labor faces a battle to retain the seat of Geelong against independent Darryn Lyons’ 91 per cent recognition rate, according to a marketing expert.
The Indy surveyed 55 Geelong-electorate voters this week, finding that 50 could name the former mayor from a photo.
Three of the five unable to name Mr Lyons recognised him as “the former mayor”.
In contrast, 11 could name incumbent state Labor MP Christine Couzens and two could identify Liberal candidate Freya Fidge. A few who were unable to name either recognised them as “politicians“.
The results gave Mr Lyons a significant edge against lesser-known opponents, said Deakin University marketing expert Paul Harrison.
“The mere fact that 90 per cent of the people you spoke to knew who he was helps.”
Mr Lyons’ fame would mostly influence swing voters disengaged with politics, similar to the election of Donald Trump as US president, Dr Harrison said.
Independent Kerryn Phelps had a similar advantage as former Australian Medical Association president over Liberal David Sharma in her recent federal by-election win in New South Wales, he said.
“If you’re not politically-conscious, celebrity will have a greater effect. We like to think we’re very rational in the way we think things through but very few of us are.”
Mr Lyons’ business endeavours would also influence voters, Dr Harrison said.
“Like it or not, people often make connections between governing and business.
“If that person seems to be successful in business … people believe they’ll be able to transfer that into politics.”
While “not all publicity is good publicity”, Mr Lyons’ sacking as mayor in 2016 merely reinforced existing opinions of him and would not sway many voters, Dr Harrison said.
“Unless you have a horrible experience or feeling about him then you’ll be less likely to vote for him.“
Survey participants were starkly divided on Mr Lyons but only two did not recognise him at all.
Former Sydney resident Ellie (surname withheld) said she knew of Mr Lyons “because of his fake abs” before coming to Geelong.
Rina and Jack Moor recognised Ms Couzens, saying she was “doing a great job” despite not seeing her “in donkeys’ years”.
A State Government spokesperson told the Indy earlier this month that Mr Lyons was “irrelevant” to Labor’s plans for Geelong.
But the party had dispatched extra campaigners to Geelong to safeguard the seat, Labor sources told The Australian last week.
The former Liberal member could win a primary vote higher than 10 per cent, sources told the paper, which meant his preferences could decide the outcome if he directed them to Liberal ahead of Labor.
