‘85% chance’ of Labor win

Kim Waters
LABOR’S Darren Cheeseman is a “safe bet” to win the federal seat of Corangamite, according to a Deakin politics professor.
Geoffrey Robinson said he was “at least 85 per cent sure” Mr Cheeseman would win the seat as he maintained a lead of several hundred votes on the Liberals’ Sarah Henderson as counting of postal votes continued on Wednesday.
“It’s fluctuating at the moment and Sarah Henderson is getting around 58 per cent of the postal votes but the other votes that come in (absentee, provisional and pre-poll) are unlikely to fall her way,” Prof Robinson said.
Mr Cheeseman, who won Corangamite from the Liberals in 2007, had a 571-vote lead over Ms Henderson when the Independent went to press on Wednesday.
Australian Electoral Commission staff had counted 5491 postal votes. More than 13,000 postal, provisional, absentee and pre-poll votes remained uncounted.
Mr Cheeseman had a 1200-vote lead when counting of postal votes began at the start of the week.
Prof Robinson said he expected a recount call, although the result would probably remain mostly unchanged.
“People do find the strangest way to fill out ballot papers but there are strict guidelines now on how to interpret individual votes, so I don’t think a re-count would change the outcome very much.”
Ms Henderson described her week as “nerve racking”.
“I’m probably drinking a bit more coffee than I should and every time my mobile rings I jump a little bit.”
Ms Henderson hit back at Mr Cheeseman’s attack earlier this week on the Liberals’ advertising budget for Corangamite.
“I’m surprised at his attempts to trade blows. The only thing I’ll say is that it’s clear to us Labor has outspent us in this campaign.”
A spokesperson for Mr Cheeseman said the Labor MP was “coping quite well”.
“Clearly, it’s better to be ahead than behind,” the spokesperson said.
“For Darren to be able to represent the seat again would be a great honour and the first time in (Corangamite’s) history that a Labor member was re-elected.
“If we do win it will be a victory for people power over a big money, glitz and glam campaign.”
An Australian Electoral Commission spokesperson predicted it could take until next Friday before a “clear winner” was revealed.