Labor ‘to hold South Barwon’, says expert

Kim Waters
THE battle for South Barwon in this weekend’s state election will be an “absolute cliff hanger”, according to a Monash Universitypolitics professor.
Nick Economou predicted incumbent Labor MP Michael Crutchfield would “just hang on” to the marginal seat, despite results from a JWS poll this week recording an eight per cent swing against him.
“The general feeling is that Labor is in deep s—- and everyone is really angry but I don’t think that’s showing up in all the other polls,” Professor Economou said.
He expected the Greens’ decision to preference Labor in South Barwon would “win the election” for Mr Crutchfield.
“The Greens polled nine per cent last time and I expect they’ll at least double those figures this election, so that’s a significant number of votes.
“I think they’ll do very well and take the primary vote off Labor but then it will come straight back to Michael Crutchfield with the preferences.”
Prof Economou labelled Labor’s 2.3 per cent margin in South Barwon as “deceptive”.
“The electorate should typically be Liberal because of it’s leafy outer-suburbs but there has been a huge demographic shift there with people, typical Labor or Greens voters, moving from the city to Grovedale, Belmont and Waurn Ponds.
“It’s probably a lot more like a 3.5 per cent margin, which I think could contribute to Mr Crutchfield just hanging on.”
Prof Economou described South Barwon as an “indicator seat” for the election outcome.
“If Andrew Katos can’t win the seat then the Liberal party probably won’t win the election at all,” he said.
“It will be a very frustrating election for the opposition. They may make up some ground but I don’t think it will be enough.”
Prof Economou predicted Labor Bellarine MP Lisa Neville would “suffer a bit of a fall” in votes to Liberal Kurt Reiter but would “muddle through”.
“The 7.9 per cent margin is a pretty healthy one for Labor in Bellarine, so I think she’ll make it through again,” Prof Economou said.
“Lisa Neville will be assisted by the fact that there are a large number of candidates because it means that, firstly, donkey votes come into play and are worth an additional half a percent.
“Secondly, the number of candidates increases capacity for informal voting – the more candidates who appear, the more numbers need to be written down and the greater the likelihood of an informal vote.”
Prof Economou expected Labour MPs Ian Trezise and John Eren to retain their traditionally “safe” seats in Geelong and Lara.
“With an 18 per cent margin in Lara and an 8.34 per cent margin in Geelong, there’s no doubt they’re safe Labor seats,” he said.