By MICHELLE HERBISON
CLIMATE change will create bigger waves on the Surf Coast and Bellarine Peninsula, according to a CSIRO study.
CSIRO research scientist Dr Mark Hemer said greenhouse gas build-up would increase the strength of westerly winds, resulting in larger waves in the Southern Ocean.
“This is good news for surfers. Wave heights will increase at the breaks on the (southern) Australian coast.”
The CSIRO’s comparison of wave-size predictions from groups in Australia, the United States, Japan, Europe and Canada found a strong consensus for larger surf in the Geelong region.
The study also forecast a likely decrease in average wave heights across 25 per cent of oceans worldwide.
Dr Hemer said coastal impacts of climate change studies had mostly focused on sea-level rise but changing wave conditions would also affect coastlines.
“There might be more swell but how the beach responds to that we don’t really know yet,” he said.
Potential changes were “very much local beach-dependent.
“Communities must consider that changes in waves can cause erosion of beaches just as much as sea level rise could. If sea level rises a metre, which is realistic over the next century, there’s potential that waves won’t break on the reefs (where they do) at the moment,” Dr Hemer said.
“And changing wave directions can change how surfing banks form.”
Torquay Boardriders vice-president Ross Slaven said his group was “totally against” global warming and any “trade-offs”, such as bigger waves.
“We’d do anything to protect the environment from global warming, especially when you look at the side effect in places like the Maldives, which with rising tides will eventually be underwater.
“Despite any positive attributes, as the tide rises it’s going to change the surfing environment anyway.”
Mr Slaven said locals had noticed changes in weather patterns during the past decade.
“Quite a common observation is that predominant seasonal weather patterns seem to be changing slightly.
The regular winter patterns of west and north-west winds seem to occasionally be interrupted by easterlies, which aren’t normal for that time of year.
“Rather than being regular and reliable, they seem to have changed quite a bit from what used to be the traditional patterns.”
