Lib edge in South Barwon, Bellarine: Seats face ’redraw’

POPULATION growth is set to force the redrawing of three Geelong state seats under Victoria’s first electoral re-division in 10 years.
South Barwon, Bellarine and Lara, all in population growth areas, are larger than the average electorate size of 41,473 voters. State law allows differentiation of up to 10 per cent in eligible voters between electorates.
South Barwon’s 50,133 enrolled voters make it the most-populace local seat and almost 21 per cent above the average.
Liberal Andrew Katos holds the seat with a margin of 3.9 per cent. The 42,670 voters of neighbouring Polwarth, a safe Liberal seat, are within the allowable quota.
Bellarine, the region’s most marginal state seat, with Labor’s Lisa Neville on a 1.4 per cent margin, has 45,813 voters, placing it 10.5 per cent above average.
Lara is also above quota by 10.1 per cent but is a safe Labor seat under Labor’s John Eren, with a 15.4 per cent margin.
Deakin University politics lecturer Dr Geoff Robinson said the re-division could shore up South Barwon as a Liberal seat while draining Bellarine of Labor booths in East Geelong and Whittington.
“It’s unlikely the re-division will cross the river, so it could bolster Labor numbers in the seat of Geelong,” Dr Robinson said.
“South Barwon could lose its coastal booths, making it more of a southern Geelong seat, especially with the population growth to come in Armstrong Creek, but the ALP will probably gain a seat west of Lara because there’s a whole set of Labor seats all above quota.”
Dr Robinson said the overall effect of the re-division could be fewer Liberal and more ALP seats because the growth areas were mainly Labor-held.
The Electoral Boundaries Commission said it considered likely demographic trends in drawing the boundaries.
Labor MP Ian Trezise’s seat, with a margin of 2.1 per cent, has 40,121 voters to be 3.3 per cent under the quota.