By Justin Flynn
Geelong enters this week’s bye with an 8-5 win-loss record after the news that the Guthrie brothers – Cam and Zach – have re-signed with the club for three and two years respectively.
The Indy takes a look at the Cats’ season so far.
What has worked?
The backline. Without Lachie Henderson and Harry Taylor for lengthy periods, the defence has stood up under all sorts of pressure. Tom Stewart has been a revelation in the backline. With Henderson back in the VFL and looking like returning sooner rather than later and Taylor back in a few weeks, the Cats will have ’good’ headaches at selection.
What hasn’t worked?
The Cats are not a high-scoring team, but their defence has managed to keep opposition sides to losing scores. Losing Dan Menzel to injury hasn’t helped, although the livewire forward is expected back in the coming weeks.
Tom Hawkins’ form has been up and down, but he was the best key forward on the ground in the loss to Richmond with three goals. Injuries haven’t helped either. Menzel, Taylor, Henderson, Aaron Black, Scott Selwood and Cam Guthrie have all missed plenty of footy this year with Black the most serious, requiring a knee reconstruction. Gary Ablett has also missed chunks of footy, but seems back to his brilliant best in recent outings.
The road ahead
The Cats should beat the Western Bulldogs at Etihad Stadium straight after their bye.
They then face three massive weeks that could define their season. Sydney at the SCG, Adelaide at Adelaide Oval and Melbourne at GMHBA Stadium present a massive challenge.
They will start favourites against Adelaide and Melbourne and if they can pinch the Swans game, it would almost certainly mean a coveted top four finish.
Geelong then has Brisbane at GMHBA Stadium in what should be a win, but then faces Richmond and Hawthorn at the MCG, before finishing with Fremantle and Gold Coast at GMHBA Stadium in what should be two wins to kick start their finals campaign.
The ‘X’ factor
Geelong’s much hyped midfield hasn’t really gelled this season, but surely it’s just a matter of time. That’s not to say the midfield hasn’t been good – far from it.
Ablett has his mojo back after three outstanding games while Joel Selwood’s performance against Richmond was simply breathtaking.
Patrick Dangerfield has had a good season without being his brilliant self, while Mitch Duncan and Tim Kelly have found plenty of the ball. If it all comes together after the bye, look out. Scott Selwood’s return will also add some hardness around the contests.
Prediction
Ladder predictions are always fraught with danger, but we have the Cats finishing the home and away season in sixth place, and playing a ‘home’ final against Melbourne, but it’s tight at the top of the ladder. If that game is at GMHBA Stadium, the Cats would be almost unbackable favourites.
One extra win could see the Cats finish as high as second. Percentage is likely to play a huge factor in the final standings and Geelong’s is competitive at 126.2 per cent.
Verdict
We see a preliminary final as a realistic goal. Get to the penultimate week of the season and then anything can happen.
