By JOHN VAN KLAVEREN
Geelong coach Christ Scott tends to shy away from the “season-defining” designation but Saturday’s game against twin brother Brad and his Kangaroos will have great bearing on the top four.
The Cats find themselves in the game of the round again, albeit with the Giants-Swans and Eagles-Crows games also holding finals consequences.
North Melbourne knows it must secure a top-four berth to enable it to get over the preliminary final humps of the past two years.
A win over Geelong would significantly boost those hopes and perhaps even grant North flag favouritism with the unconvinced bookies.
But a Cats victory would lift their chances considerably and put a decent dent in North Melbourne’s prospects, otherwise known as a win-win.
Not only does North have Geelong to contend with, it follows up with games against Hawthorn, Adelaide and West Coast so a loss could be compounded over those rounds.
On the other hand the tight ladder means the Cats could fall from third to seventh with another loss.
Geelong already shares its win points of 32 with three other teams, and likely a fourth will join that logjam in the middle of the top eight.
While its percentage has helped Geelong keep sway so far, if the losses keep piling up it will make little difference.
Its times like these that the lack of intensity against lower ranked but hungrier teams – Collingwood and Carlton – come home to roost.
This is the cost. Wins in those games would have killed this debate.
If the game was played purely on statistics Geelong would eke out a narrow win.
The Cats are slightly up on the Roos in disposals, clearances, marks and inside-50s with the rest of the numbers more or less even.
Geelong’s midfield stats are up on the Roos as well, led by Patrick Dangerfield and Joel Selwood backed by Mitch Duncan and Cam Guthrie, with cameos from Jimmy Bartel’s beard.
Despite benefiting from two extra wins, North Melbourne’s percentage is still eight points behind Geelong, and that’s with the Cats’ wayward goal kicking.
Tom Hawkins will be missed but as sometimes occurs in these situations, someone else bobs up unexpectedly as a result of the structural change.
But fix the goal percentage and the Tomcat’s absence might not be as fiercely felt.
