Forecast off mark

COLD COMFORT: Melbourne trio Claire, Coral and Judy - "Don't worry about our surnames, nobody knows us here" - were all rugged up for the return of winter while visiting Geelong this week. 172569 Picture: REBECCA HOSKING

Under the Weather, by Lindsay Smail

A fractionally warmer August has completed a winter also marginally above the 30-year average in Geelong.
The city’s average daily maximum in August was 14.8C, while the average daily minimum of 6.3C, making the month’s temperatures .1C above normal.
The lowest minimum was .7C on 2 August, while the highest maximum was 20.4C on 14 August.
August in Geelong included three minimums below 2C and two days above 20C.
The month’s rain was above average across most of the urban area and surrounding districts, with an overall average of 50mm. The latest 30-year average is 45.4mm.
August 2017 had 21 rain days.
The rain figures must have surprised the Bureau of Meteorology, which again provided an unreliable three-monthly outlook ahead of winter 2017 in Geelong.
The above-average rain totals left the region’s water supply catchments around 68 per cent of capacity at the end of August, which was better than at the same time last year.
However, forecasts indicate a lower chance of above-average rain in the next three months.
Geelong’s August also had three consecutive days of frost, from the first to third days of the month.
The lowest minimum fell to .7C on 2 August.
The three frost days also brought fogs, which lasted all day on 3 August when the city recorded a maximum of only 8.7C – the month’s lowest maximum since 2005.
Four very windy days arrived in the middle of the month between 11 and 17 August. Maximum gusts in Geelong reached 80km/h on 16 August but 102km/h at Avalon the same day.
But in a month of contrasts, August 2017 included only one thunder/lightning day, which was on 23 August. Three days later, flash flooding was reported at Leopold and light hail in various suburbs.
Combining the figures for August with June and July, Geelong’s average winter temperature of 10.35C was a whisker above the 30-year average of 10.27C.
The average minimum was 5.97C compared to the average 6.0C, while the maximums were warmer at 14.73C compared to 14.47C.
Despite the above-average rain in August, Geelong’s winter 2017 finished with below average rain of 107mm compared to the 30-year average of 137.2mm.
* Lindsay Smail operates Geelong Weather Services