Preferences will decide city election: Mitchell in pole poll position

By Noel Murphy
GEELONG’S mayoral race is shaping up as a battle of preferences with incumbent John Mitchell positioned well ahead of his chief contenders to take the city chalice.
High-profile businessman Keith Fagg, widely expected to garner a strong primary vote, is unlikely to draw early preferences in counting and can be expected to face strong challenges from Chamber of Commerce boss Bernadette Uzelac or publicist Stephanie Asher.
Ms Uzelac, depending on the strength of her primary count, could prove a powerful finisher with multiple high-ranking preferences from the field’s best-known candidates.
But she faces a battle with Ms Asher on primary votes and early preferences to stay in the race. If Ms Uzelac can’t do so, then Ms Asher appears poised to pick up a large number of late preferences and mount that strong late challenge herself.
Local footballing legend Ron Watts is unlikely to win few early preferences and must fare strongly in the primaries to keep pace with Ms Asher or Ms Uzelac, let alone the anticipated front-runners Cr Mitchell and Mr Fagg.
Cr Mitchell stands to pick up the earliest preference with low-profile candidates Frank Rozpara, John Smith and Graeme Robin along with Ms Uzelac and Socialist Alliance candidate Sue Bull preferencing him at either two or three.
If he polls well in the primaries, he may well unassailable.
Mr Fagg, by contrast, has one third, one fourth and three fifth preferences headed his way respectively from Mr Smith, Mr Robin, Mr Watts, Ms Asher and Ms Uzelac.
Ms Asher has three second preferences, from Mr Watt, Ms Uzelac and Mr Robin and one fourth, from Mr Fagg.
As low-ranking candidates are eliminated during counting it is the high and mid-profile candidates whose preferences will bear greatest weight.
It is here that Ms Uzelac is poised better than anyone else. She has no less than seven candidates directing preferences of between second and fifth.
When low-profile candidates are eliminated, provided she can hang on, she will have the powerful third preferences of Mr Watt and Mr Fagg and second preferences of Cr Mitchell and Ms Asher.
Cr Mitchell was reluctant to be drawn on his preference prospects. “Whatever happens, happens,’’ he said.
“I’m putting my best foot forward. I’m happy to stand on my record and what council’s achieved over last four years.’’
He said he had no contingency career plans if he didn’t take the job again.
“I’m only in it to win it,” he said.