Bookies: McArthur, Marles ”unbackable”

Hamish Heard
Incumbent parties are shortpriced favourites to retain the region’s two federal seats at this year’s poll.
And Labor leader Kevin Rudd this week overtook John Howard as favourite in the Prime Ministerial stakes, according to the bookies.
Liberal Member for Corangamite Stewart McArthur is unbackable in the race for the seat he has held since 1984, with online bookmaker Portlandbet giving him odds of $1.17.
Mr McArthur is sitting comfortably ahead of ALP candidate Darren Cheeseman who is paying $4.50 and candidates from other parties are well behind with odds of $34.
Punters backing Labor candidate for Corio Richard Marles have little to gain if he wins, with a measly return of $1.02 on offer.
Mr Marles’ odds are well below the $11 payable if his nearest rival, Liberal Angelo Kakouros, wins in an upset.
Until early this week bookies had bucked recent opinion poll trends that have Labor comfortably on track to seize power.
The Coalition had enjoyed narrow favouritism, with the Portlandbet agency paying $1.87 to the ALP’s $1.90, until a turbulent week for the Howard Government led to a form reversal.
Labor is now paying $1.72 to the Coalition’s $2.05
Election punters should believe the odds, according to American academics Justin Wolfers and Andrew Leigh.
The pair has published research finding that betting odds are better than opinion polls at predicting Australian election results.
However, the region’s candidates were playing down the odds’ importance.
Mr Marles said he agreed with odds predicting a close overall election result but disputed the extent of his lead in Corio.
“In terms of Corio, I think the electorate is much more unstable than the odds are suggesting,” he said.
Mr Kakouros said he was “not concerned” with odds suggesting he was heading for a loss.
“I’m not a gambling man,” he said.
Mr Cheeseman was quick to claim his underdog status but said he was confident he could unseat Mr McArthur.
“The odds are good value but I don’t believe they reflect where the market will be on election day,” Mr Cheeseman said.
“It will be close.”